T minus one year

There is one year remaining until the start of 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver. This fact was announced amid great fanfare this week. Will the Own the Podium program deliver on its promise to send Canada to the top of the medal standings? We will have to leap-frog Germany and the United States to do, but I don't think it's a complete fantasy. Canada has a great group of winter athletes, especially in speed skating. With an improved alpine team, we should contend for more medals than ever before. And anything less than four medals in curling and hockey would be a bitter disappointment. Speaking of hockey, it won't be long before we start seeing predictions for the men's roster in newspapers across the country. So why don't I get the ball rolling. Here are my picks, in possible line and pairing combinations.

----- Rick Nash ---- Sidney Crosby -- Dany Heatley -
Vincent Lecavalier - Joe Thornton --- Jarome Iginla -
---Simon Gagne --- Ryan Getzlaf --- Martin St. Louis
---Ryan Smyth ---- Mike Richards -- Shane Doan ---
-------------------- Jeff Carter ---------------------

-- Chris Pronger --- Jay Bouwmeester -------------------- Roberto Luongo
Scott Niedermayer ---- Shea Weber ----------------------- Martin Brodeur
-- Dion Phaneuf ------- Dan Boyle ------------------------- Carey Price
------------- Mike Green --------------

The Canadian management will have more difficulty than any other country in picking their team simply because no one comes close to matching our depth. A perfect illustration is the case of Marc Savard who will likely be left off the squad. What other country couldn't find room for a perpetual 90 point scorer?! Savard is one of three possible replacements I see for the team. The others are Jonathon Toews and Brendan Morrow. I would promote Morrow to the team if Smyth were injured or otherwise unable to play. Some may question my selection of Smyth, but how can you not put "Captain Canada" on the team? If ever the team was playing unmotivated hockey, Ryan Smyth is the guy I would tap to get the team rolling.

Let's check how my team has changed since I did this exercise on the blog last year.

On forward we have four changes. IN: Smyth, St. Louis, Carter, Doan. OUT: Spezza, Perry, Toews, Sakic. Note that all four new forwards were on the "Second Team" from last year. Why the changes? For one, Jeff Carter has jumped past both Perry and Toews this season. He is also a solid penalty killer. Spezza has regressed and probably didn't deserve his spot last time. And Burnaby Joe's future is very uncertain at this point. I do regret leaving Toews off the roster. He is a rising star and, more importantly, we ought to have a Manitoba connection like we did in 2012 (Fleury and Belfour). But Toews can still play his way onto this team with an excellent start to next season.

Also, here's Yzerman, quoted in today's National Post: "I guess my feeling is, good players with good hockey sense can play any forward position. In reality, that will happen with one or two centremen, but one thing that's important to keep in mind is that guys who are natural wingers and have played the position their entire careers pick up little nuances of playing wing."

And this: "My idea of a checking line is three guys who are great in both ends of the rink."

Thus, it makes a lot of sense to think guys like Doan, Smyth, and St. Louis (all solid natural wingers) will have a good chance of making the team. How good of a two-way line would Smyth (or Morrow), Mike Richards, and Doan make!

The changes on defence number two. IN: Boyle, Niedermayer. OUT: Redden, Campbell. But note what I said at the time: "One noticeable absence on the blue line is Scott Niedermayer. I question whether he will still be playing in two years. If he is, then I would select him in a heartbeat. He is the world’s second best defenseman (after Niklas Lidstrom of course). The likely deletion is Wade Redden."

Redden would be deleted in any case on account of his poor play these last two seasons. His stock was already plummeting when I selected the team before but, being a long time fan of his, I was loathe to cast him aside. I'm also substituting Boyle for Campbell (much like the Sharks did) because I think he provides an upgrade.

In net, I am now predicting that Price will be the undressed goaltender for the team instead J-S Giguere, regardless of his current struggles.

I am already greatly excited for this tournament. In a NHL playoff format, I think Canada would have a 90% chance of winning gold. With single elimination, the task is that much harder. Run into a hot Henrik Lundqvist or Miika Kiprusoff and you're going home early. Remember when Martin Gerber turned away 50-some shots in Turin to blank Team Canada? Moreover, even Canada cannot match the firepower on Russia's top two lines:

Ovechkin Malkin Semin
Kovalchuk Datsyuk Kovalev

Scary! The talent falls off after that of course for the Ruskies. The Americans, on the other hand, will have a pretty terrible team. Zach Parise and Patrick Kane are good players, but they shouldn't be the highlights yet.

Anyways, we're guaranteed some exciting hockey. To the eventual Team Canada: Bonne chance, les gars!