Monday, November 2, 2009

Introduction to Microeconomics: H1N1 Edition

Health officials in Ottawa have enacted a policy that will prevent people from waiting in line at H1N1 vaccination clinics on behalf of another. This policy effectively prohibits one of the few ways in which the inefficiency of the rationing system can be diminished.

Normally, market prices ensure that demand equals supply. If there is too much demand for a good or service, then the price will rise until enough potential consumers exit the market to re-establish equilibrium. And vice versa. The market for H1N1 vaccines is a great example of an unbalanced market. Demand for the innoculations far outstrips the ability of health authorities to deliver them. People are routinely lining up for five hours or more to receive the vaccination. A co-worker of mine regaled me this morning with the story of how he and his father-in-law showed up outside a clinic at 3:30am on Saturday; twenty others had beaten them there.

Now, these shots could be priced in such a way that these long waits would disappear. But selling the vaccine at a market price seems distinctly immoral to Canadian sensibilities. Fair enough. It is desirable that all members of our soceity have access to the H1N1 vaccine--should they desire it--with regard to income or ability to pay.

But when a good is rationed, long and undesirable queues are inescapable. And these queues place a disproportionate burden on some segments of society, in the same way that a market price would weigh more heavily on low income individuals. More speciifcally, queueing imposes a larger opportunity cost on those whose time is more valuable, i.e. high earners. A corporate executive or an electrician must give up 5+ hours of productive work just to get the vaccination. That is a huge cost relative to the McDonalds wage earner or the unemployed person.

With the great disparity in opportunity costs between individuals, the new policy makes little sense. Why shouldn't a person who earns $100 an hour (your lawyer or account perhaps) be able to pay somebody $15 an hour to save his place in line? Such a transaction would be beneficial for everbody by vastly decreasing the inefficiency of the vaccination campaign. H1N1 will impose a large enough economic cost without enacting such foolish policies.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

We Are the Pirates Who Download Anything

I wonder if these two G&M stories are connected.

Oct 20: Canada has earned a dubious distinction as a world hub for illegitimate file-sharing websites and a leader in Internet piracy. Canada now hosts five of the most popular pirate sites in the world.

Oct 21: If you've ever tried to access popular video-streaming sites Hulu and BBC iPlayer and music-streaming services such as Spotify and Pandora, you've probably been greeted with an apologetic – yet blunt – message telling you that, sorry, the service isn't available in Canada.

Monday, October 5, 2009

MLB Player Awards 2009

The MLB regular season is over, so it's time to hand out the individual awards for this past year of big league baseball.

MVP

American League: Joe Mauer, MIN. The consensus pick among baseball writers appears to be Joe Mauer and I can't say I disagree. He will lead the AL in batting, OBP and SLG%, a feat that has not been replicated since George Brett's MVP-winning 1980 season. Consider Mauer's excellent defence at catcher and his team's improbable run without Justin Morneau, and he becomes a heavy favourite.
Runners-Up: Mark Teixeira, NYY; Miguel Cabrera, DET
Pre-season rankings: 1. Justin Morneau, MIN; 2. Miguel Cabrera, DET; 3. Mark Teixeira, NYY.

National League: Albert Pujols, STL. As I predicted in April, Pujols will win his third MVP award in five years. Among other categories, he leads the league in home runs, runs scored, OBP, SLG%, and extra base hits. While his most recent attempt at the triple crown will fall short, Pujols will still rank in the top 3 for RBI and batting average. I could go on but no further evidence is necesssary.
Runners-Up: Hanley Ramirez, FLA; Chase Utley, PHI.
Pre-season rankings: 1. Albert Pujols, STL; 2. David Wright, NYM; 3. Manny Ramirez, LAD.

Cy Young

American League: Zach Greinke, KC. Greinke leads the league in ERA (2.06) and sports an incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio (237 K, 49 BB). Moreover, his solid 16-8 record should not be a drawback when no pitcher reached the 20-win plateau. But the real reason Greinke should win this award is that unlike the other candidtates, he dominated all season. Felix Hernandez didn't heat up until June and Roy Halladay swooned briefly in August. C.C. Sabathia also had less than stellar moments. Greinke, on the other hand, started the season with an incredible 40+ inning run and ended it the same way, with barely a bump in between.
Runners-Up: Felix Hernandez, SEA; Roy Halladay, TOR.
Pre-season rankings: 1. Roy Halladay, TOR; 2. Jon Lester, BOS; 3. C.C. Sabathia, NYY.

National League: Chris Carpenter, STL.The NL Cy Young will probably have the tightest voting of all the individual awards this year. But Carpenter's league-leading ERA (2.24), his 81% winning percentage (17-4 record), and his incredible stretch run give him the edge over team-mate Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) and strikeout machine Tim Lincecum (15-7, 2.48 ERA).
Runners-Up: Adam Wainwright, STL; Tim Lincecum, SF.
Pre-season rankings: 1. Johan Santana, NYM; 2. Brandon Webb, ARI; 3. Tim Lincecum, SF.

In hindsight, my pre-season projections were undone by injuries to David Wright, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, and Justin Morneau. Man-Ram's suspension was also costly. On the plus side, I did predict that Greinke would be among the AL leaders in both ERA and Ks, although I didn't expect enough wins for him to seriously contend for the Cy Young.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

NHL Regular Season 2009-10: Part II

Sometimes sports projections are tedious. Like now, when we can pretty much count on a third straight MVP-calibre season from Alexander Ovechkin. And until oldtimes like Brodeur and Lidstrom actually slow down, they will remain strong contenders for end-of-year hardware.

In the MVP category, I forecast Ryan Getzlaf and Rick Nash to take big steps forward and put themselves in the mix alongside the perennial candidates.

Chris Pronger will make his strongest case for the Norris trophy in years. His assignment in Philly will be to shut down the East's top stars, namely guys like Crosby, Ovechkin and Parise. This is a tougher assignment than in the West, where rosters are balanced rather than top-heavy. Look for Duncan Keith to finally be recognized as an elite defenceman, and for Bouwmeester to finally make good on his potential.

Here are my five top choices for the major trophies:

Hart Memorial
1. Alexander Ovechkin, WSH; 2. Sidney Crosby, PIT; 3. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA; 4. Evgeni Malkin, PIT; 5. Rich Nash, CLB.

Art Ross
1. Alexander Ovechkin, WSH; 2. Evgeni Malkin, PIT; 3. Sidney Crosby, PIT; 4. Pavel Datsyuk, DET; 5. Joe Thornton, SJ.

Maurice Richard
1. Alexander Ovechkin, WSH; 2. Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL; 3. Rich Nash, CLB; 4. Dany Heatley, SJ; 5. Jeff Carter, PHI.

James Norris
1. Chris Pronger, PHI 2. Zdeno Chara, BOS; 3. Niklas Lidstrom, DET; 4. Duncan Keith, CHI; 5. Jay Bouwmeester, CGY.

Georges Vezina
1. Roberto Luongo, VCR; 2. Martin Brodeur, NJ; 3. Tim Thomas, BOS; 4. Cam Ward, CAR; 5. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR.

Frank J. Selke
1. Mike Richards, PHI; 2. Mikko Koivu, MIN; 3. Ryan Kesler, VCR; 4. Sami Pahlsson, CLB; 5. Joe Pavelski, SJ.

Jack Adams
1. Brent Sutter, CHI; 2. Andy Murray, STL; 3. Mike Babcock, DET; 4. Bruce Boudreau, WSH; 5. Todd McLellan, SJ.

Calder Memorial
1. John Tavares, NYI; 2. James van Riemsdyk, PHI; 3. Victor Hedman, TB; 4. Viktor Stalberg, TOR; 5. Matt Gilroy, NYR.

NHL Regular Season 2009-10: Part I

The puck drops tonight so it's time for my pre-season predictions. I have built a sophisticated mathematical model which incorporates thousands of variables including natural skills progression/regression, injury risk, overall team talent, and divisional difficulty. Using a few exogenous assumptions, the model will generate expected performances for every player and team in the league. However, it's more fun if I just use my intuition so the projection reported here are based not on my dynamic model, but on my own hockey sense.

Eastern Conference
1. Washington (President's Trophy)
2. Pittsburgh
3. Boston
4. Philadelphia
5. Carolina
6. New Jersey
7. Montreal
8. New York Rangers
9. Ottawa
10. Florida
11. Toronto
12. Tampa Bay
13. Buffalo
14. Atlanta
15. New York Islanders

Western Conference

1. San Jose
2. Detroit
3. Calgary
4. Chicago
5. Anaheim
6. Vancouver
7. St. Louis
8. Columbus
9. Edmonton
10. Nashville
11. Dallas
12. Los Angeles
13. Minnesota
14. Phoenix
15. Colorado

Stanley Cup Champion: Chicago Blackhawks
Runner-up: Philadelphia Flyers

Individal projections to follow.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Econopinions

Via Greg Mankiw, a new survey of economist policy views from the American Economic Association.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Back to Basics

Here's an interesting article about alleviating poverty in Namibia through a negative income tax. Wait, is that something Milton Friedman would advocate?!

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The sanitation folks are jolly friendly blokes...but not right now

When people ask my opinion on unions (or, as happens more frequently, when I give it sans solicitation), I usually use the example of garbage collection to illustrate how unions distort the market. Garbage collection is a job that demands little if any skill. Workers need no talent or brains, just an able body and a capacity to endure the disagreable stench. A single garbageman is easily replaceable and hardly essential to our daily lives. In short, a garbageman's labour should be worth fairly little on the market.

But if all garbagemen band together they can exert upward wage pressure well in excess of their actual value as individual workers. This is the power of collusion, a criminal offense under Canadian law except when practiced by labour unions. The union uses denial of garbage collection services to distort the market outcome for members. They want us to believe that the value of any one individual's services is equal to the value of their collective services. This is false. None of us care if one garbageman holds out for a higher wage, but if they do it as a group then we notice. Toronto is sadly being held captive in this very same situation right now.

If you are a union symphatizer, let me ask you this: would you mind if gasoline stations or grocery stores conspired to keep prices at an elevated level? If yes, that your unconditional support of striking unions is rank hypocrisy. There is no difference between collusion to keep wages above market levels and collusion to keep any other price above market level.

p.s. Ontario residents have another even more detrimental strike action to fear this summer.