Round 2

First, review my first round predictions:

Montreal over Boston in 5 games (Actual: Mtl in 7)
Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 5 games (Actual: Pit in 4)
Washington over Philadelphia in 6 games (Actual: Phi in 7)
New York Rangers over New Jersey in 6 games (Actual: NYR in 5)

Detroit over Nashville in 4 games (Actual: Det in 6)
San Jose over Calgary in 6 games (Actual: SJ in 7)
Minnesota over Colorado in 5 games (Actual: Col in 6)
Dallas over Anaheim in 7 games (Actual: Dal in 6)

Not too bad. 3/4 in each conference, missing the 3-6 game in both. Props to me on calling Dallas over Anaheim.

On to Round 2:

Montreal over Philadelphia in 7 games
Pittsburgh over New York Rangers in 6 games

Detroit over Colorado in 6 games
Dallas over San Jose in 6 games

NHL Awards and Post-season Picks

Yesterday, I compared the final standings to my pre-season predictions. I also predict the winners of the individual awards. I will not reveal those picks until after the hardware has been given out. However, now that the season is over, allow me to award the trophies to who I feel deserves them.

Hart Memorial Trophy

WINNER: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington (65-47-112)
This is a no-brainer in my mind. Alexander the Great almost single-handedly pulled his team into the playoffs.

RUNNERS UP: Jarome Iginla, Calgary (50-48-98) and Joe Thornton, San Jose (29-67-96)
With Pavel Datsyuk, these two players led the West in scoring, a more impressive feat than leading the East. Both players were easily the most important contributor to their team’s success this season.

James Norris Trophy

WINNER: Niklas Lidstrom, Detroit (10-60-70, +40)
No other defenceman in hockey creates more goals for or prevents more goals against than Lidstrom. Also a no-brainer. This may not be his last Norris either.

RUNNERS UP: Brian Campbell, Buffalo (8-54-62, +8) and Zdeno Chara, Boston (17-34-51, +14)
Campbell is one of the game’s slickest puck carrying defencemen today. And Chara did just about everything on the blueline for the Bruins this season. An honourable mention goes to Sergei Zubov who was challenging Lidstrom until his season-ending injury.

Vezina Trophy

WINNER: Martin Brodeur, New Jersey (2.17, .919, 44 W, 4 SO)
It doesn’t matter that New Jersey keeps losing its best skaters to retirement and free agency; Brodeur continues to carry the team to the playoffs each year. He’ll add another Vezina to his trophy case this June to show for it.

RUNNERS UP: Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose (2.14, .910, 46W, 6 SO) and Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers (2.24, .912, 37 W, 10 SO)
Both of these goaltenders kept their teams in contention while those who were supposed to be goal scorers tried to remember how to put the puck in the net.

Calder Memorial

WINNER: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (21-51-72)
Despite a mid-season slump, Kane scored at almost a point-a-game pace. It wasn’t a perfect season, but it was the best rookie season.

RUNNER’S UP: Jonathon Toews, Chicago Blackhawks (24-30-54) and Tobias Enstrom, Atlanta (5-33-38)
Toews is the best player of this class of rookies. Injuries prevented him from claiming the Calder. A lone bright spot in Atlanta this year was the play of Enstrom, who became the de facto number one defenceman by playing four minutes a game more than any other blueliner.

Jack Adams

WINNER: Guy Carbonneau, Montreal (104 pts, 1^st in East)
Many commentators expected the Canadiens to finish out of the playoffs. By extracting honest efforts from his entire roster, Carbonneau took this team to the top of the East.

RUNNERS UP: Mike Babcock, Detroit (115 pts, 1^st in West) and Joel Quenneville, Colorado (95 pts, 6^th in West)
The Red Wings, hockey’s best run club, turned in another dominating season. Their long time rivals, the Avalanch, gave a surprisingly solid effort all season despite lengthy injuries to Sakic, Stastny, and Smyth.

I will ignore the Selke and Lady Byng trophy because the voting rationale for those awards often escapes me.

And now my picks for the first round:

Montreal over Boston in 5 games
Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 5 games
Washington over Philadelphia in 6 games
New York Rangers over New Jersey in 6 games

Detroit over Nashville in 4 games
San Jose over Calgary in 6 games
Minnesota over Colorado in 5 games
Dallas over Anaheim in 7 games

Pre-season Predictions in Review

Like I did recently with the upcoming MLB season, I drew up a list of predictions for the 2007-08 NHL season way back in September. Let’s see how I did. I’ll list the final standings as I predicted and report the actual position in brackets. Starting with the Eastern Conference:

1. Ottawa Senators (7)
2. New York Rangers (5)
3. Carolina Hurricanes (9)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (2)
5. Buffalo Sabres (10)
6. New Jersey Devils (4)
7. Montreal Canadiens (1)
8. Florida Panthers (11)
9. Philadelphia Flyers (6)
10. Washington Capitals (3)
11. Toronto Maple Leafs (12)
12. Boston Bruins (8)
13. Atlanta Thrashers (14)
14. New York Islanders (13)
15. Tampa Bay Lightning (15)

Not terribly great here. Ottawa looked like they might achieve my first place prediction after their ridiculous run in October and November. But they were one of the worst teams in the league after that. Montreal, on the other hand, greatly surpassed my expectations. But many people had them out of the playoffs altogether. And to my surprise, Boston overachieved even more than in 2006-07. To my credit, however, the Carolina and Washington picks would have been almost bang on if Carolina had won its last game. Instead we have a big swing because of the rule that makes the three division winners the 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd seeds. And I correctly picked the bottom three teams, two of which were playoff teams a year ago. The other is still only three years away from being Stanley Cup champions. How many others picked the Lighting to finish in last place?

Now to the West:

1. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (4)
2. Detroit Red Wings (1)
3. Calgary Flames (7)
4. San Jose Sharks (2)
5. Vancouver Canucks (11)
6. Nashville Predators (8)
7. Minnesota Wild (3)
8. Colorado Avalanche (6)
9. Dallas Stars (5)
10. Edmonton Oilers (9)
11. Chicago Blackhawks (10)
12. Saint Louis Blues (14)
13. Columbus Blue Jackets (13)
14. Phoenix Coyotes (12)
15. Los Angeles Kings (15)

Again, I nailed the bottom of the standings. But that is not very impressive. So far I’ve only correctly picked one divisional leader: the Detroit Red Wings, the only no-brainer of the bunch. Only the plus side, I correctly picked 7 of the 8 playoff teams in the West. Perhaps my coup in the West was picking Edmonton to finish in 10^th. They actually finished 9^th. Most commentators had written the Oilers off from the start.

In my hypothetical playoff bracket, I have Pittsburgh and Ottawa in the East and San Jose and Minnesota in the West. Obviously that won’t happen now. In fact, there’s a good chance the Pens will sweep the Sens in the first round. But the other three teams have a chance to be there. I had some success in this area last year. At the outset of the 2006-07 playoffs, I had Buffalo beating Ottawa in the East final (it was the reverse), and Anaheim beating Calgary in the West (only Anaheim was there). Then I called Anaheim to win the Cup against the East champion (Buffalo, reality: Ottawa). Maybe I’ll be lucky again this year.

Rios and Hill Signings

The Toronto Blue Jays announced on Friday that they had signed Alex Rios and Aaron Hill, two valuable contributors, to long term contract extensions. Both players, while already solid major leaguers, have yet to hit their primes. The new contracts should ensure that when they do, they will be wearing a Blue Jays uniform.

Rios signed a six year extension that covers the 2009 to 2014 seasons and pays him $64 million. This works out to roughly $10.7 per year. Note that Rios still has two arbitration years left. There is then a $13.5 million dollar club option for the 2015 season.

Hill’s contract is a little more complicated. He earns $11.6 million over the next three seasons (2009-2011). This covers his arbitration eligibility years. Then, just as he would normally enter the free agent market for the first time, the Blue Jays can pick up a three year, $26 million option. If they decide against the three year option, they can instead elect to exercise a one year option worth $8 million or a two year option worth $16 million. Thus, the contract pays Hill almost $4 million per year over his arbitration eligibility period and potentially some $8 million once he hits free agency.

I like both of these signings. J.P. Ricciardi has locked up two important players for several years at a very reasonable price. In my last year of undergraduate study, I estimated a wage equation for MLB free agents for my senior econometrics paper. According to my results, and based on their performances to this point in their careers, Hill could expect to earn $8.4 million as a free agent and Rios could demand $13.1 million. Of course, my predicted salaries are not exact and the real market values may be higher or lower. But if we make two reasonable assumptions, (1) Both Rios and Hill will continue to improve, and (2) baseball salaries will continue to climb, it seems very likely that the contracts signed today will pay these players less than market value once they achieve free agency eligibility in a couple of years.

An American in touch with his Canadian side

Canadians are often quite critical of what we see as the substantial ignorance of the American population re: the Great White North. In fact, we usually take perverse pride in being so misunderstood and forgotten by the imperialist Yankees. But this is really just our own prejudice showing through. Some Americans are woefully uninformed about their northern neighbour. But a large proportion do appreciate the qualities that make Canada so unique and special. Here's one American journalist's take on what makes Canada such a great place, especially during NHL playoffs