MLB Predictions - Individual

I list my three mostly likely candidates in each category.

American League

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Vladimir Guerrero

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Josh Beckett
3. Erik Bedard

AL Rookie-of-the-Year
1. Evan Longoria
2. Daric Barton
3. Jacoby Ellsbury

AL Batting Champion
1. Ichiro Suzuki
2. Vladimir Guerrero
3. Robinson Cano

AL Home Run Champion
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Travis Hafner
3. David Ortiz

AL RBI Champion
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. David Ortiz

AL ERA Champion
1. Fausto Carmona
2. Roy Halladay
3. Justin Verlander

AL Wins Champion
1. Justin Verlander
2. Josh Beckett
3. C.C. Sabathia

AL Strikeouts Champion
1. Erik Bedard
2. Javier Vasquez
3. Felix Hernandez

National League

NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Chase Utley
3. Prince Fielder

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Roy Oswalt

NL Rookie-of-the-Year
1. Joey Votto
2. Chase Headley
3. Kosuke Fukodome

NL Batting Champion
1. Chase Utley
2. Albert Pujols
3. Hanley Ramirez

NL Home Run Champion
1. Ryan Howard
2. Albert Pujols
3. Prince Fielder

NL RBI Champion
1. Matt Holliday
2. Ryan Howard
3. Prince Fielder

NL ERA Champion
1. Jake Peavy
2. Johan Santana
3. Dan Haren

NL Wins Champion
1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Carlos Zambrano

NL Strikeouts Champion
1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Aaron Harang

MLB Predictions - Team

Here are my predictions for the upcoming MLB season. Individuals performance predictions will follow. Perhaps the only surprising thing about my picks is that I have Arizona and Colorado finishing 3rd and 4th in the NL West. Both teams greatly overachieved last year. Arizona had a negative run differential and a wild and improbable run the Rockies propelled them to the World Series where they were greatly overmatched by the champion Red Sox. I expect both teams to take a step back this year.

American League

EAST
1. Boston Red Sox 95-67
2. New York Yankees 90-72
3. Toronto Blue Jays 89-73
4. Tampa Bay Rays 70-92
5. Baltimore Orioles 62-100

CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers 97-65
2. Cleveland Indians 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins 80-82
4. Chicago White Sox 78-84
5. Kansas City Royals 70-92

WEST
1. Anaheim Angels 93-68
2. Seattle Mariners 87-75
3. Oakland Athletics 75-82
4. Texas Rangers 72-89

National League

EAST
1. New York Mets 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
3. Atlanta Braves 83-79
4. Washington Nationals 73-89
5. Florida Marlins 70-92

CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs 88-74
2. Milwaukee Brewers 85-77
3. Cincinnati Reds 80-82
4. St. Louis Cardinals 74-88
5. Houston Astros 72-90
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 66-96

WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 87-75
2. San Diego Padres 84-78
3. Arizona Diamondbacks 82-80
4. Colorado Rockies 79-83
5. San Francisco Giants 74-91

Post-season

ALDS
Boston over Anaheim in 5
Detroit over Cleveland in 5

NLDS
Philadelphia over Chicago in 4
New York over Los Angeles in 4

ALCS
Detroit over Boston in 7

NLCS
New York over Philadelphia in 6

WORLD SERIES
Detroit over New York in 6

The Reserve Clause

A few weeks back, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder expressed his unhappiness with his current contract. Fielder, who followed up an impressive rookie campaign in 2006 by leading the NL with 50 home runs in 2007, is one of the sport’s best young power hitters. But he renewed his deal for only $670,000 US, relatively little for a player of his calibre. Fielder is understandably frustrated with his contract situation. Should he be?

Here’s a primer for Fielder and others who are ill-informed about the structure of MLB’s labour market. All players with fewer than six years of experience are subject to what is called a “reserve clause”. The rights to these players are retained by the team to which he was drafted and originally signed. However, once a player completes three full years of major league experience, he is eligible for salary arbitration, giving the player some leverage in salary negotiations. Note that 17% of players become arbitration eligible after just two years of service; they are known as “Super Twos”. After six years of experience, a player is no longer constrained by the reserve clause and becomes a free agent. He can then make his services available to the highest bidder.

There is a small but significant economic literature on this topic. The findings of these studies are unsurprising. Briefly:

· The reserve clause creates significant monopsony power, especially for players who are ineligible for arbitration

· Once players achieve arbitration eligibility, their salaries continue to be suppressed below competitive market levels, but rapidly approach free agent salaries as experience increases. For example, see Ryan Howard’s latest contract.

· Free agents enjoy considerable market power and can command salaries in excess of their marginal revenue products (winner’s curse?)

So I say to Fielder, there is no reason to be unhappy with your contract. His current contract seems to be about right according to MLB’s collective bargaining agreement. In fact, he is probably earning about as much as anyone would in his circumstances. And with just one more year until arbitration, he can expect to be earning a lot of money very soon.

This is probably a good place to comment on the NHL’s CBA. This functions very much like MLB’s agreement, except that arbitration eligibles (often called restricted free agents) can be poached by other teams through the use of offer sheets, e.g. the Dustin Penner signing. A restricted free agent’s current organization can either match the offer or accept draft picks as compensation for losing a player. As a result, teams have less control over their young players than they did before. To correct for this, a club may want to sign its young players to long contracts earlier in their careers. The riskiness of such deals is offset by the risk of losing the player to an offer sheet. And in fact, this is exactly what we see happening in the NHL. Alexander Ovechkin, Rick Dipietro, Mike Richards, and many others have signed long term contracts that would have seemed absurd in previous years. But this is simply the natural consequence of the new market structure.

Combined with a reasonable salary cap, this is actually a fairly sensible way to ensure that players receive compensation in line with their true value while maintaining a high degree of competitiveness. That’s not to say there won’t be growing pains as teams and agents adjust to the new rules. And of course not everybody wins. The beneficiaries of this system are the game’s most talented players; they reach their peak earning years faster than before. And the salary cap ensures that the richest clubs will not be able to abuse their position by indiscriminately stripping the rosters of small market clubs. Thus, we should see increased parity across the league. The losers in this agreement are aging veterans. In the past a team could overspend on a past-his-prime free agent. But teams must now contend with a salary cap while paying more to their young players. They can no longer afford to over-compensate veterans. And in this fan’s eyes that’s not much of a problem.

What about Barry?

CP reports that Anthony Weiner, a US congressman from New York, has called on the FBI to drop its investigation of Roger Clemens for perjury. Weiner said:

“Roger Clemens has been shamed. I think the public record is replete with examples of how he did not likely tell the truth. What is the public benefit of continuing with an FBI investigation?”

And:

“The real incentive to clean up this mess is not a governmental one.”

I agree on all points. The case against Clemens is strong. If the allegations are true, his fervent proclamations of innocence will further embarrass and discredit him. The mighty fall hard, and the once giant-like Clemens seems bound for a crash. But does the use of performance-enhancing drugs in professional sports warrant an FBI investigation? My opinion is that it does not. Rather, the professional leagues should be responsible for setting and implementing their own drug policies.

But my concern here is that while Roger Clemens garners sympathy, Barry Bonds receives no compassion even as his own legal troubles continue unabated. If anyone has been needlessly and excessively harassed by the authorities in regards to doping, it is Bonds. So where are the Bonds supporters? His situation is essentially identical to Clemens, so if the case against the latter should be dropped, why not Barry’s? I call on Anthony Weiner and all other Clemens groupies to have a consistent sense of justice and treat all besieged athletes the same way.

News Briefs

The end of February seemed unusually busy for Canada. I suspect that the heightened activity was due to the extra day. Here are some thoughts on the stories that CBC News deemed to be essential reading.

1. The Cadman deal

I wonder how long Dona Cadman will last in politics. She has her eyes on the Conservative candidacy in her husband’s old riding, and yet doesn’t have the sense to handle this potentially damning information more carefully. Don’t misunderstand me: I’m not advocating a cover-up. These are serious allegations and the Canadian public deserves to know the truth. But for her own sake, could she not have revealed the story more delicately? Or less embarrassingly?

2. Breakaway Anglicans

This is a sad story for the Canadian Church. Ten congregations have now left the Anglican Church of Canada. A popular misconception is that their departure is due primarily to differences about homosexuality. No one denies that this has contributed to the divisions. Ultimately, it was the blessing of same-sex marriages that drove many these congregations to leave. But I think the real is issue is much wider, and has more to do with an increasingly loose interpretation of the Bible in general, rather than with one subject (namely, homosexuality) in particular.

3. Prince Harry sallies forth

Sally on, old chap, sally on.

4. The federal budget

As a student of the dismal science, it would be terribly uncouth for me to avoid mentioning the budget. It was, however, a rather boring budget in the end. Which may not be such a bad thing considering the schizophrenic character of the previous Harper budgets. Things I did like:

(A) $300 million to the Atomic Energy of Canada Limited
- nuclear power such not be ignored in the search for alternative energy

(B) $250 million over five years for the automotive sector to research and develop greener and more fuel-efficient vehicles
- now is the time for auto companies to increase investment in all areas of their business

(C) $330 million over two years to improve access to safe drinking water in First Nations communities
- So many aboriginal policy spending initiatives are ridiculously vague but this one is clear, practical, and is something I have wanted to see for some years now

(D) More scholarship money for students
- There still needs to be a greater emphasis on graduate students
- Also, is the new Canada Student Grant Program merely the old Millennium Scholarship Foundation under a Conservative name?

5. Kenya`s peace

Thank God. I hope the cabinet scheme will be effective.

6. Robert Latimer

The earlier National Parole Board ruling was a disgrace. The members in question grossly overstepped the stipulated duties and authority of their position. I`m glad to see their decision was repealed.

7. Trade deadline, schmade deadline

It was a very exciting trade deadline: two blockbusters (the Richards and Hossa trades), one good exchange of quality assets (Cambell to SJ), and a curious dump (Huet to Washington). Brian Burke showed his talent by adding valuable players without having to make a deal at the deadline. I was intrigued by the lack of moves by Canadian-based teams. Nonis, in particular, performed poorly by failing to acquire scoring help. Also, the Toronto Maple Leafs really shook things up. Of course, it will be weird to see Wade Belak suiting up in a Panthers jersey, but the rebuilding had to begin. Those mid-round picks are crucial.